A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically held an overwhelming advantage. In fact, out of 28 series, the team with the 3-0 lead has emerged victorious 27 times. The sole exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs staged an incredible comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Notably, 20 of those 28 series concluded in sweeps. The Florida Panthers are on the brink of replicating such dominance, aiming for a sweep for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to extend the series by winning Game 4, history suggests their chances are still bleak, as 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games.
Despite the long odds, the Oilers remain hopeful.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers have faced significant struggles against the Panthers this season, going 0-5-0. In their most recent encounter, Edmonton made a late push in the third period, with Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod scoring to reduce the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers found themselves down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team boasting a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Their downfall was triggered by a shocking 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida netted three goals. Edmonton had just equalized at 1-1 with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. However, a turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, who scored to make it 2-1, deflating the crowd at 9:12.
It quickly became 3-1 at 13:57, as solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover, leading to Sam Bennett’s seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 opportunity that began deep inside Edmonton’s attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Mistakes have continued to pile up for Edmonton, while goals from their star players have not. While Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have each scored, the Oilers' five leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have yet to find the back of the net in this critical series.
These five players also anchor Edmonton’s once-lethal power play, which has been rendered impotent by Florida’s penalty kill that has successfully thwarted all ten man-advantage opportunities in the series. Edmonton's power play had previously been operating at over 37%, best in the postseason.
McDavid has still been a significant contributor, with assists on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series. He is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, a feat achieved only by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. However, the other key players have yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
Reflecting on their performances, the players and coaches have acknowledged the need for improvement. Leon Draisaitl expressed his frustration, saying, "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better."
Draisaitl emphasized the Oilers' missteps, stating, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Goaltender Stuart Skinner acknowledged the tough situation, but remains optimistic: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch also remains hopeful, highlighting the team's potential to bounce back: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. There’s a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There’s absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner echoed his coach's sentiments, noting, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl summed up the situation and what lies ahead: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it’s hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."
The Oilers face a daunting challenge, but within the locker room, there's still a palpable sense of belief and determination. Only time will tell if they can defy the odds and etch their names into the annals of hockey history.